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Compared with the current painstaking situation of global solar energy, the wind energy, another pillar of renewable energy, is more optimistic in the industry.
Wind power is booming Recently, Pike Research, an international market research firm, issued a report that wind power will become the most representative energy industry in the world in the next 5 to 6 years with unbeatable investment.
Parker said that in competition with such powerful rivals as solar energy and geothermal energy, wind power is expected to emerge as the most powerful industry in the clean energy market. More and more wind turbine manufacturers are stabilizing their market position through mergers and acquisitions. At present, the world's top ten wind turbine manufacturers account for about 79% of the global fan market.
The report predicts that by 2017, the global investment in wind power projects will increase from 77 billion U.S. dollars in 2011 to 153 billion U.S. dollars. In the past six years, the cumulative investment in new installations is expected to reach US$820 billion. The total installed capacity of wind power, including onshore and offshore projects, will increase from 236 million kilowatts in 2011 to 563 million kilowatts.
It is worth noting that currently, the installed capacity of wind power has already accounted for the largest installed capacity of non-hydro renewable energy power generation in the world, and 1/5 of the total electricity in some countries is brought by wind energy, which shows that wind power is gradually becoming a global mainstream power generation industry. .
"In this industry, most people appreciate wind power very much and regard it as mainstream technology. Parker senior analyst Peter Asmus said: "Not only because it does not produce carbon dioxide, but also it can meet the rapid growth of electricity. demand.
Asmos pointed out that based on the significant slowdown in the global economic recession, the industry has also slowed the pace of new investment in wind power. However, the demand for wind turbines is still very strong, and the overall development momentum of wind power is still rising. “Although the newly installed capacity of wind power will decline in the short term, the development in the next six years is still very optimistic. The future wind power market is very challenging, but it is also the best time for industrial innovation. Fan manufacturers are from the economy and The actual perspective promotes the development of wind power equipment in a new direction, he said.
The report also pointed out that in the next few years, the global wind energy industry will still be dominated by the three major markets in Asia, Europe and North America. Undoubtedly, China will be the main leader in the Asian market, India will follow closely, the European market will be dominated by Germany and Spain, and the United States will continue to maintain its dominance in the North American market.
According to data from the American Wind Energy Association, currently wind power accounts for 3% of total U.S. electricity generation. This year, the total installed capacity of wind power will reach 6.5 million to 7.5 million kilowatts, and in 2010 it will be approximately 5.1 million kilowatts. And 2012 will be a very strong year for wind power development. The number of installed capacity will start to increase sharply from the second half of the year and it is expected to double the power generation capacity by 2013.
In addition to the United States, Brazil has also paid more attention to wind energy. The country intends to increase the installed capacity of wind power from the current 1.5 million kilowatts to 11.5 million kilowatts by 2020. Ramon Fiestas, Director of Latin American Research, Global Wind Energy Association, said: "The wind power market is indeed the focus of investors' long-term attention, but to ensure investment stability, the government needs to establish a long-term policy framework.
It is reported that the Brazilian government plans to introduce a mechanism for the on-grid tariff of wind energy, when the price of wind power in the country will drop from the current $166 per 1,000 kWh to $111 or $55. Comparing with the price of $27.30 for the country's first power generation hydropower generation, the competitiveness of wind power is becoming increasingly prominent.
Analysts inside the industry said that Brazil’s wind power expansion is raging. In the next 3 to 5 years, Brazil’s natural gas thermal power plants will probably give up its second spot to wind power stations.
The growing strength of competition for the potential strength of wind power, Bloomberg New Energy Finance also gave a positive answer. The Bloomberg Research Report stated that onshore wind power generation can compete with fossil fuel power generation in 2016.
According to the analysis of the report, the cost of onshore wind power will fall by 12% over the next five years given the reduction in equipment costs and the increase in power generation efficiency. Although the world’s best wind farms now have the strength to compete with coal, natural gas, and nuclear power in terms of economic efficiency, the overall competitiveness of wind power must be comparable to that of fossil fuels until 2016.
According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Wind Power, with the increase of economies of scale and supply chain efficiency, the cost of onshore wind turbines will increase by 7% for each increase in installed capacity. At present, the price of onshore wind turbines is approximately 880,000 euros per 1,000 kilowatts, which is a lot lower than the 2 million euros in 1984. At that time, the installed capacity of wind power in the world was only 300,000 kilowatts, but today it has exceeded 240 million kilowatts.
In addition to the reduction in turbine installation costs, a steady rise in output power is also a factor that drives down the price of wind power. Over the past period of time, turbines have been able to capture more wind energy through technological innovations, and the efficiency of power generation has also improved. The operation and maintenance costs of wind farms are also gradually declining. Operators’ experience and turbine quality have improved. Overall operating costs have dropped from 50 Euros per 1000 kWh in the 1980s to 11 Euros now.
In summary, for every doubling of land-based wind capacity, the overall cost will drop by 12%. By 2016, the cost of power generation is expected to drop to 52 euros per 1,000 kWh. At present, the average cost of gas-fired power generation is approximately 46 Euro per 1,000 kWh. If carbon emission factors are taken into consideration, wind power is fully capable of competing with it.
Wu Jing, chief wind power analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said the public’s view of wind power is generally environmentally friendly, but expensive and unstable. However, in fact, in some areas where wind conditions are very good, wind power has basically reached parity, and this situation is expected to become a common phenomenon by 2016.
In addition, the strength of offshore wind power can not be ignored. Parker analysts said that in the next few years, European offshore wind power will lead the global market into a new peak. By 2017, about 75% of the world's offshore wind turbines will be installed in the European market.
Renewable energy wind energy is becoming a global mainstream power generation industry
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