April 25, 2024

Competition among global steel producers has intensified

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The dimming global economic outlook has led to overcapacity in the steel industry. Some senior executives have stated that from Texas in the United States to Thailand in Asia, sales wars are being waged everywhere and prices are lower than costs. The imposition of sanctions on Iran and the lack of recovery in demand in the Middle East have all aggravated tensions and cut off major import markets. The global steel industry is ready for a new round of production and trade disputes.

According to Reuters, the United States has implemented measures to prevent Russia from dumping hot-rolled coils more than 10 years ago, and the U.S. Department of Commerce is currently evaluating these measures. A major steel trader has stopped importing Russian-made coils due to concerns about trade or obstruction by US authorities.

A few years ago, the “sinner” in the eyes of everyone was China. Indeed, China’s export shipments to the United States have soared by two-thirds so far this year, but Washington has already imposed a series of punitive anti-dumping duties on steel products imported from China.

This distress is not exclusive to the developed countries, but is shared by more places, such as developing countries and regions such as Turkey, Thailand, and Taiwan. According to company executives, these places are plagued by price falls and blame this on cheap imported products.

Paul O'Malley, chief executive of Australia's largest steel company Bluescope Steel, told reporters on Tuesday that the company filed anti-dumping lawsuits this week against hot-rolled steel coils imported from Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia.

Admittedly, falling prices and fierce competition are at least currently a good thing for steel consumers, such as automotive and appliance manufacturers, and construction companies. However, if this friction triggers a trade war, consumers may also be implicated if retaliatory trade measures are taken by those countries that believe that they have been treated unfairly.

China, which is also the world's largest steel consumer and producer, has already been taxed on a special steel “oriented grain-rolled electrical steel (GOES)” in the United States. Last month, China filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO), accusing the United States of imposing countervailing duties on Chinese products. The lawsuit involved 22 products such as solar panels.

As demand has weakened, competition among global steel producers has intensified.

As the United States and the European Union (EU) tightened their sanctions against Iran earlier this year, the steel market lost an important buyer and this brought another blow to the already unperforming industry.

According to the International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB), Iran’s imports of hot-rolled coils accounted for 4% of the world's total transaction volume of 51.8 million tons last year, much higher than the 1.4% in 2008. The data shows that about 63% of HRC imports in 2011 came from Russia, which has doubled from the level of four years ago.

Dealers said that last year’s Arab spring protests caused a sudden drop in exports to key buyers in other Middle East regions, including Egypt and Libya. Since then, demand has not been restored. Therefore, exporters had to find alternative markets, which gave the United States an alarm.

“I believe steel mills in the United States are worrying that all of these goods originally destined for other markets may turn into the United States,” said Ugur Dalbeler, managing director of Colakoglu Metalurji, one of the largest steel producers in Turkey.

The strength of the dollar and the strong demand of the United States have also made it a popular importer. In the past year, energy companies have struggled to build pipelines and mine shale gas and reserve oil; automakers have once again vigorously increased production.

Dealers said that the US market is full of imported products and the price of hot rolled coils in Russia is lower than the current price, but there is still a lot of room for profit. The countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, led by Russia, can sell steel at a low price because they have a rich supply of raw materials and the production cost is the lowest in the world.

Experts said that the relationship with Russia was the tightest since the late 1990s, when the Cold War had ended and Russian steel was flooding the US market.

The suspension agreement signed in July 1999 resolved the dispute. The agreement required that the hot rolled coils sold by Russia to the United States be subject to the formulation of the lowest price formula and the quota system. The United States had threatened the imposition of anti-dumping duties. U.S. steelmaker Nucor accused Russia of depressing US market prices. The nation’s second-largest steel maker stated that the reference price set using the above formula failed to catch up with the price change in the United States.

Based on the preliminary results of the May review, the U.S. Department of Commerce found that the price in Russia is lower than the US market price. When the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary results on June 1, it pointed out that the reference price for importing hot rolled coils in Russia by reference to the suspension mechanism was US$408.32 per ton in the second quarter, far below the current US market price of US$763 per ton in March.

The Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the quarterly pricing formula needs to be readjusted or it will be terminated. This may trigger domestic industries to promote anti-dumping duties. Prior to the deadline for the United States to make a final ruling in September, the United States and Russia negotiated in an intense manner and shipments have stopped.

But it is not just the United States that has doubts. Many developing countries believe that their industries are being heavily attacked by imports from other developing countries.

Taiwan’s largest steel producer, China Steel, believes that the fiercest importer competition is in Southeast Asia, not the United States.

The impact of Iran’s withdrawal from the market is particularly evident. Even Turkey, which is often seen as dumping cheap steel to the United States, has accused Russia and Ukraine of harming Turkish domestic prices.

It is not clear whether such verbal confrontation will escalate into a full-scale trade dispute - countries may have to see damages for a long time before they can take action.

With prices tumbled, the industry needs to get rid of the huge inventory and excess capacity that plagued the market. Arcelor Mittal is considering further reductions in Europe, and traders expect that producers will extend summer maintenance. But analysts are skeptical that China or Russia will take similar actions.

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