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Fan Jianping, chief economist and director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, has predicted that GDP growth this year will fall from 11.9% last year to 10.3%. He believes that the next step of macro-control should be gradually changed from the "control demand" of the previous stage to the "stable demand."
At the High-level Roundtable Dialogue Forum hosted by the newspaper and supported by the "Economist" Information Department of the United Kingdom, Fan Jianping predicts that China's economic growth in the first half of the year will be around 10.5%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year, but it is still at an economically moderate level. The upper edge of the growth interval. He said that a moderate fall in the economic growth rate is conducive to improving the total supply and demand relationship in society, creating a favorable environment for curbing demand-driven inflation, and creating favorable conditions for energy conservation and emission reduction.
From the second half of the year, post-disaster reconstruction and energy price adjustment will stimulate economic growth, and the still-poor world economic situation and sales decline in real estate and automobile markets will restrict China's economic growth. Overall, the annual economic growth rate can still be maintained at a relatively high level of 10.3%, but about 0.4% of this is driven by post-disaster reconstruction factors. “If there is no such factor, the fourth quarter economic growth will be Drop to less than 10%."
In addition, the cost-driven factors in the second half of the year will gradually become the main reason for rising prices in China. This year, the increase in CPI should be controlled at around 7%, and there is still a prerequisite that no significant natural disasters will occur in the second half of the year. The causes of cost-driven inflation are relatively large international factors. The resetting of domestic resources and labor resources is not a short-term phenomenon. Therefore, we must attach great importance to the suppression of excessive price increases.
Fan Jianping believes that from the growth trend reflected by the annual growth rate of GDP in the last four quarters, the current economic growth in China has formed a spontaneous trend of inertial decline. At this time, the demand control policy is adjusted from the previous "control demand" to "stability." "Demand" is very necessary, not only to stabilize export growth, but also to stabilize investment growth and consumption growth. Among them, sound fiscal policies should increase support for post-disaster reconstruction, protection of people's livelihood, and structural adjustment; tight monetary policies must be flexibly controlled according to changes in domestic and international economic conditions, especially for post-disaster reconstruction and enterprises. The funding needs of technological advancement and equipment renewal must give priority support. In addition, it is necessary to vigorously develop the corporate bond market so that technologically innovative companies with capital requirements can play a leading role in transforming the mode of economic development.
Fan Jianping: GDP growth rate will fall back to 10.3% this year
Jianping, chief economic teacher of the National Information Center: Macro-control should gradually shift from "control demand" to "stabilize demand"