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In the two weeks to the end of October, the price of the Capesize vessel has gradually stabilized and stabilized after experiencing a soaring surge and a tragic correction. After a market pace, it will re-launch a moderate climb. However, as several major miners are rushing to expand production capacity before iron ore prices enter the long-term “Xiong Road†next year, and the Chinese economy is in the process of transformation and upgrading, the economic growth rate may fall below 7%. The growth rate of iron ore import demand is not stable, and the sea-fishing type shipping market will enter the box shock period.
Haitang-type shipping price tends to calm brokerage Braemar analysis, at the end of October, affected by the panic sentiment of the market price plunging, the shipowner’s price for the cargo owner’s low pressure was all collected, eventually dragging the freight rate to the bottom of 7.7 US dollars. /Ton. Subsequently, a Hong Kong broker reported that the freight rate of a cargo carried in mid-November rebounded to US$8.4/ton. This shows that the shipowner is adjusting the transaction price and has a little courage to say “no†for the ultra-low freight rate. . Sure enough, at the beginning of this week, the freight rate of the Western Australia-Qingdao route was higher at $8/ton.
At the same time, the Singapore brokerage firm noted that Vale re-emerged in the Capesize chartering market after a few weeks of stealth, providing some support for the unilateral decline of the Cape voyage freight rate to stabilize. Last Friday, the Tubarang-Qingdao voyage rate rose by $1 and returned to above $20/ton at the beginning of last week. For this week's market, a Beijing brokerage firm said that market panic has dissipated and shipowners have clearly resisted the freight rate below $20.
In terms of iron ore demand, the Norwegian ship brokerage company (RS Platou) pointed out that China's steel mill iron ore replenishment stocks seem to have come to an end, resulting in iron ore prices last week, but the broker The bank quoted a statement from the China Iron Ore Steel Association that China's steel output will rise to 800 million tons in 2014, up 3%-4% from the estimated 7.7-7.8 billion tons this year. 30 million tons of iron ore will be filled with 40 sea otters. Arctic Securities also noted that in the last week of October, China's port iron ore stocks hit 74 million tons, significantly exceeding the monthly level of 6.7-72 million tons from January to September.
In the first two weeks, the violent fluctuations in the Capesize market led the shipowners to revisit the slow-moving strategy. The Singapore brokerage agency believes that after the 8th shipping price of the Australia-China route is broken, the cost efficiency optimization can only be achieved by slowing down the voyage. At the same time, slow sailing is also an effective way to dilute the excess capacity, and wait until the freight rate rises again. The airline will help reduce the huge fluctuations in the market.
Experts analyzed that the excess capacity of the Haitang-type ship market is self-correcting, and the new energy-efficient capacity of the new generation has gradually become the main ship type. In the next few years until 2020, the Cape shipping market will usher in a quiet development period.
In the long-term game between the ship and the cargo, the ship and the cargo have been swaying each other for each other, looking for a powerful chip in the market game. On the one hand, the shipowner strives to calculate the supply and demand situation of the future market, and on this premise, adjusts the shipbuilding plan according to its own capital capacity, in order to set the market trend for the next 5-10 years. On the other hand, the cargo owner has racked his brains to calculate whether it is to lock the 10-year capacity or to further build its own capacity and more economical.
In terms of new Cape capacity, Australian miners are clearly behind the freshwater valleys of Brazil, which is not unrelated to the fact that iron ore freight accounts for a small proportion of miners' costs, except for the short-term months of the first half of 2008 to the first half of 2008. Rent rents have hit a peak of about $100,000 per day, and the majority of the ship's rents are generally lower than the cost of miners on most trading days. However, because Brazil's iron ore is mainly sold in China, the transportation distance is long, and the transportation cost is high. In order to achieve the scale effect of iron ore transportation, reduce the cost of iron ore sales and enhance the pricing flexibility of ore, Brazil is building a large scale. Nearly on the bulk carrier such as the ore sand ship (valemax). The country's largest miner, Vale, includes large ore vessels and 20-year leases leased from ship owners such as STX Pan Ocean, Oman Shipping and Singapore's Berge Bulk. There are a total of 53 capacity.
The three major miners in Australia will suffer from the slowdown in iron ore capacity growth from next year, but it has not yet appeared. On October 23, BHP Billiton announced an increase in iron ore production expectations for the year after the 23% increase in iron ore earnings in the first quarter of this year (ending September 30), from the previous 207 million tons to 212 million tons. At the same time, Rio Tinto reported that the company's iron ore output in the third quarter hit a record high of 53.4 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons. Overall, the 2013 Australian Big Three and Vale iron ore production is estimated to reach 1 billion tons.
At the same time, iron ore production will be severely oversupplied from 2014, and this trend will continue at least until 2018, which means that iron ore prices will start a long "bear road" from next year. Faced with such expectations, the mine will suspend or delay the launch of the new plant project for a long time. In this context, the proportion of iron ore freight in the cost accounting of miners will increase.
Shareholders of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are urging the company to reduce its iron ore capacity expansion plan and return shareholders' cash in a timely manner, given the expected decline in iron ore earnings to 2018. However, although the market expects the average price of iron ore to run in the range of $80-90 in 2014-2018, the two companies are rushing to maximize capacity immediately before the iron ore price falls next year, short-term bets on iron ore. Prices are stable at the high of $130/ton in July this year until next year.
Australian miners will not build their own fleets under the strict cost control environment. The size of the Capesize fleet will gradually slim down, and the market supply and demand will gradually become more balanced. In addition, the gap between the energy-saving and efficient new capacity and the old capacity will be widened, which will give the miners and ship owners with more new capacity more voice. The large fluctuations in the price of sea-going vessels will stimulate shipowners and renters to be more inclined to sign multi-year transportation contracts. After four years of capacity dismantling, both cargoes will become more accustomed to a more calm and orderly Marine market.
China's import and export market direction In the entire international dry bulk shipping market, the current market of sea-fishing vessels, which account for more than 60% of the iron ore transportation market in Western Australia to China, is the most active. Data show that China imported 743.5 million tons of iron ore in 2012, an increase of about 8% year-on-year. Li Xinchuang, executive deputy secretary-general of China Iron and Steel Association, predicts that China's annual import of iron ore will reach 800-830 million tons, while China accounts for 81% of iron ore imports. This is not difficult to explain the madness of several miners. Motivation to expand iron ore production capacity.
The Chinese economy is shifting from an investment-driven growth model that relies on infrastructure construction to a consumption-based growth. This year's GDP growth rate is expected to be 7.5%, and the average growth rate of 8%-9% in 10 years is obviously slowing down. By 2018, China's economic growth rate will be close to 7% or lower than 7%. If the expectations come true, the supply of iron ore will increase, and the price of iron ore will also be low.
In addition, the latest report released by the People's Bank of China conveys a simple and clear idea: to stabilize growth, we can only maintain a neutral monetary policy: to go to capacity, we must maintain a tight monetary environment. Therefore, the trend of domestic steel mills to de-capacity is irreversible, and whether iron ore demand can continue to rise still needs to be observed.