May 05, 2024

Unbalance between supply and demand becomes the most important factor in the rise of natural rubber

The domestic rubber market trend in November can be said to be very dramatic. It has experienced the process of rushing to the cloud, and then fell to the bottom, especially in natural rubber, and the spot price of natural rubber has skyrocketed during the first half of the year, hitting record highs. According to Xue Jinlei, an analyst at China National Chemical Network, the spot price of natural rubber GB 1st spot market was generally around 30,000 in early November, and it had soared to more than 35,000 in the middle of the month, with an increase of 16.7% in just 10 days, compared to the increase in early October. It is about 30%. According to the spot price of natural rubber of RMB 16,000/ton in October last year, the current price of natural rubber has more than doubled in one year. This round of natural rubber prices has greatly exceeded the highest price of 28,000 yuan / ton before the financial crisis, but after a sharp downturn in the mid-term, the price plummeted more than 3,000, the market once fell to freezing point.

The imbalance between supply and demand is the most important factor leading to the soaring of natural rubber. The sharp drop in supply has made the contradiction between natural rubber and rigid demand increasingly prominent. The recent severe weather in the rubber-producing areas of the world has seriously affected the natural rubber market: Thailand's rubber production was affected by heavy rains. In the fourth quarter, natural rubber production may decline by 4.1% to 930,000 tons. Among the two major producing areas in China, Yunnan experienced severe drought, and Hainan suffered heavy rain and rubber harvesting was affected. It is expected that by the end of December, the amount of rubber produced will soon drop to about 1/3 in October. This year, the reduction in domestic natural rubber production is a foregone conclusion, which may be more than 40,000 tons less than last year and a decrease of about 6% from 2009. In terms of downstream demand, the high boom in the domestic auto industry also supports the price of natural rubber. According to the latest automobile production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September of this year, China’s auto production and sales volume increased by 36.1% and 36.0%, respectively, year-on-year. At present, China's rubber production can only meet one-fifth of domestic demand. This year, China's rubber consumption is expected to increase by nearly 9% to 3.3 million tons, and the sales volume of automobiles in the same period is expected to increase by nearly 30%. Given that wet weather will continue at least until the first quarter of next year, it is expected that the tight rubber supply situation will continue until next year.

In the mid-to-late days, the natural rubber market experienced a sharp drop. On the one hand, it was inseparable from the national macroeconomic policy tightening. On the other hand, it rose rapidly and adjusted in stages. Investors took profits and left the market, but before the international natural rubber The tight supply and the prosperous Chinese auto market at the end of the year will surely form a strong support for the spot price of natural rubber. Therefore, it is difficult to reverse the market conditions for natural rubber. At present, it can only be said to be a phased correction. Although, from a macroscopic point of view, the direction of the domestic tightening policy seems to have been determined, and the gradual increase in China-Japan stocks has returned to normal levels, and China’s next year’s auto market or slower growth rate has been plagued by negative factors, but the increasing supply and demand of natural rubber in the world The gap can only be compensated by the increase in prices, and the contradiction between supply and demand will continue to support the high price of natural rubber.

However, there are also certain hidden risks in the high cost. From the perspective of the domestic natural rubber market, the contradiction between upstream and downstream industrial chains has been escalated again. Due to the dispersiveness of the domestic tire industry, low anti-risk capability, the recent high cost of natural rubber, and the downstream tire factory Already unable to accept the high price of raw materials, some factories are shut down, holiday, the spot market price is priceless for most of the time. Rapidly increasing costs cannot be transmitted in a timely manner, and it also puts heavy pressure on downstream manufacturers. Therefore, China Chemical Industry Network recommends: Method One: Controlling costs to achieve recycling, using environmentally recyclable equipment in the production process, not only can reduce the environmental Pollution can also save material, killing two birds with one stone. In addition, in the production process, the defective products caused by human problems are reduced as much as possible. Even if defective products appear, they can be used in large and small ways for secondary use and cost savings. Method two: The company has developed to a large-scale and specialized enterprise. It is necessary to position the enterprise as a professional and large-scale manufacturer. Gradually achieving strength, expansion, and professional development is also one of the overall development trends of the industry in the future. It is necessary to develop the company not only as a brand supplier; it is also a professional manufacturer. Compared with the selection of raw materials, as much as possible to reduce costs, specializing in brand manufacturing and brand professional processing, through the production of standardized and more problem-solving problems. Method 3: Mergers and reorganizations are more urgent than vehicles. Currently, the merger and reorganization focuses on the entire vehicle company. The reorganization of parts and components companies is actually more urgent and necessary than the whole vehicle. If there are no large parts and components companies, the costs will not come and the quality will not go. The development of the entire industry will be extremely difficult. Domestic parts and components companies are small in scale, weak in strength, and have a severe shortage of research and development capabilities. In this context, if the parts and components industry wants to develop rapidly, it must speed up mergers and reorganizations to form a cohesive effect.

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