Survey: Explaining the New Policy on Fuel Consumption Limits

Energy conservation and emission reduction are destined to be the main theme of this era.

Integrating the country’s astonishing rate of oil consumption and the degree of pollution of carbon emissions, and in response to the relevant international indicators and active implementation of international conventions, China is fully advancing energy conservation and emission reduction efforts in all walks of life. As the world's second largest industry for carbon dioxide emissions (there are data showing that a car emits a harmful gas equivalent to 3 to 4 times the vehicle's weight in one year) and a large oil consumer, the automobile industry will undoubtedly become the focus of remediation.

Recently, a statement made by Li Gang, director of the equipment division at the National Development and Reform Commission’s Industry Coordination Department, at one of the seminars on the development of an energy-saving vehicle in China once again brought the focus of public opinion to the new policy on auto fuel consumption. According to Li Gang, the average fuel consumption system for auto companies that aims to promote automobile companies to focus on energy conservation and emission reduction from the source is expected to be established. This indicates that the “Method and Indicators for Evaluation of Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicles (Phase III)” announced in November last year (hereinafter referred to as the “third phase fuel consumption limit”) will be officially launched soon. However, due to the large number of stakeholders involved in this new fuel consumption limit standard, the standard has been increased by a large margin, coupled with the re-establishment of the appraisal system. (The New Deal refers to the “Company Average Fuel Economy Law” in the United States, which will The production of all models was included in the scope of the overall assessment. After the announcement, it attracted the attention of all parties. Support, opposition and complaints were mixed.

According to the latest industry survey of Gasgoo.com (August 23 to 29), the average ratio of the fuel consumption of the model to be launched has accounted for a large proportion of those who support or oppose the industry. The poll results of Survey 1 show that 40% of the people believe that the contradiction between domestic energy, environment, and the excessively high fuel consumption emissions of cars is becoming increasingly fierce. The introduction of the “third stage fuel consumption limit” is in line with China’s national conditions; At the level of consideration, 35% of the people think that no car company can hit the standard proposed by the New Deal. Its launch deviates from the basic national conditions; another 25% of people are worried that some companies will adopt opportunistic policies to cope with the assessment of the new system. It will make it lose its usefulness. It is difficult to determine if it is the best time to introduce this new regulation at the moment.

At the 2009 conference in Copenhagen, the Chinese government made a solemn commitment to the international community to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 2020 from 40% to 45% on a 2005 basis, and incorporate this indicator into the mandatory national economic development program. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, this indicator has also been embodied: “The four major constraints for industrial energy-saving and emission reduction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period and this year are the value-added energy consumption per unit industry in China by 2015, respectively. The carbon dioxide emissions and water consumption were 18%, 18%, and 30% lower than those at the end of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan," respectively, and the overall utilization of industrial solid waste increased to about 72%.

Of course, too fast domestic oil consumption is also urging us to control automobile fuel consumption and vigorously promote new energy vehicles to ease the impending national energy crisis. As Li Gang, Director of the Equipment Division of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Department of Industry Coordination, put it: “If we limit the number of Chinese cars we will not die, but energy will drown Chinese cars.” According to the data disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China’s crude oil reliance on foreign 55.2%, exceeding 53.5% in the United States. Therefore, starting from the actual conditions of the country, it is imperative to consider the “third stage fuel consumption limit” as “too harsh”.

The influence will also gradually emerge.

Judging from the survey results of the survey 2, there are widespread concerns about the implementation effect of the “third stage fuel consumption limit” in the industry, and 34% of the people believe that due to regulations, spot checks, and other details, the automakers are apt to find a way out, leading to the New Deal. The impact is greatly reduced. In contrast, only 10% of the people think that the upgrading of this standard will allow domestic energy and environmental issues to be alleviated to a certain extent; in addition, 28% of people will have an impact on the survival of autonomous car companies. As a result, the New Deal will lead to rising costs and competition. The decline in power has become more difficult, but 24% of optimistic people believe that most companies will actively respond and promote the promotion of related technologies.

At the time of the draft of the “third stage fuel consumption limit” last year, as one of the main drafters of the draft, Jin Yeff, deputy chief engineer of the Institute for Standardization of the China Steam Weaving Research Center, commented on the impact of the New Deal when interviewed by the media. Pushed a new height. According to it, "None of the companies in China can now fully comply with the standard." For a time, the upgrade of the fuel consumption limit standard that has not yet taken effect has attracted numerous complaints from companies, such as the cost of each vehicle raising at least several thousand dollars. Need to buy technology from overseas and so on.

“The impact of this system on companies is not necessarily exaggerated as some companies say.” Facing the complaints from some domestic companies, a senior industry source pointed out to Gasgoo.com “On the one hand, because the new standards will Adopt gradual progress and give companies sufficient preparation time. Secondly, after the standard adaptation period of the first two phases, the vast majority of companies have already begun to implement the implementation of follow-up standards in advance and the technology reserves are relatively abundant."

In our survey interview, a number of people agreed that the implementation of the new standard will not have an excessive impact on the entire domestic automobile market. On the other hand, for some local companies that mainly focus on small-displacement products, the pressure can be released. Products are mainly concentrated in mid-to-high-end car companies. As long as the production ratio of small-displacement vehicles is planned, the overall average fuel consumption of the company can be reduced. In the expectation that technologies such as hybrid and pure electric vehicles will mature gradually in the next few years, after the official launch of the relevant models, the pressure on companies in this area can be further reduced. Of course, some people are worried that, for those companies with limited funding and lack of new energy technologies, the traditional car's energy-saving technology research and development can not keep up with the industry's development cycle, the fuel consumption limit standards are increasingly stringent, resulting in The pressure can be imagined.

There are pessimistic people who have pointed out that automakers are relatively lacking in engine fuel technology, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of some small-displacement vehicles is even comparable to the higher-emission vehicles of joint ventures. The new standard will allow some funds and technology. It is difficult for survival of independent auto companies that are relatively weak. The optimists said that the current first-line independent brands such as Chery and Geely have achieved breakthroughs in energy conservation and emission reduction. Basically, as long as the relevant parameters of the engine are re-adjusted, the national standards can be met. For similar ZTE, Great Wall, Jianghuai, etc. Although the relatively high energy consumption products such as light buses, SUVs, and MPVs are the main players, although there is some pressure, it is also beneficial to force these car companies to increase their investment in fuel technology and new energy, and accelerate the transformation of product structure. upgrade. Therefore, overall, the development of self-owned brands will not be greatly affected.

If the improvement of the overall level of environmental quality and the degree of energy conservation are considered from the perspective of the national level, the key to good or bad policy implementation is whether the relevant regulations for supervision and spot checks are in place. This is why people up to 34% in Survey 2 have doubts about this. Combined with the poll results of Survey 3, we can find that if the “third stage fuel consumption limit” New Deal really exerts a greater effect, in the view of 36% of the people, the most fundamental depends on the standard formulation and the relevant details. Spot checks, supervision and other measures are strictly implemented. For example, if a car company chooses the best car in the same batch for fuel consumption during the fuel consumption test, it will not perform testing according to the requirements of the road section, but will report it at a constant speed fuel consumption of 90 kilometers per hour; it may even be reported by some car companies. Change engine calibration on the spot to reduce fuel consumption. Of course, some people pointed out to us that some car companies collaborated with the inspection center to do things directly in the test report when the model was not closed. These and other measures have caused the actual influence of the fuel consumption limit policy to be compromised because of spot checks and inadequate supervision.

In Survey 3, over 40% of people think that the development of too strict standards may also make things counterproductive. Among them, 21% of the people think that the standard should be about half of the car companies can achieve, rather than almost all companies can not be achieved, which will also force some companies to some extent to conduct data fraud; the other 21% said that the standard setting It should be gradual and should not be increased too quickly. According to previous news, the “third phase fuel consumption limit” will determine 2012 as the lead-in period, and will be officially implemented by 2015 (the 2012-2014 corporate fuel consumption will be given higher than the target fuel consumption target value of 9% and 6%, respectively). , 3% flexibility). Compared with the second-phase standard implemented in 2008, the fuel consumption limit of the new standard is expected to decrease by 20%, and the national average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles will be reduced to about 7L/100km by 2015. During this period, there is also a voice indicating that the standard will Raised to 6L/100km, the carbon dioxide emission standard is as low as 167g/km.

There are also 19% of people believe that the formulation of domestic fuel consumption limit standards should be based on Europe, the United States and Japan as standards, to avoid being passive in the international community.

In fact, at the moment when the “third stage oil consumption limit” in China is about to start, some developed countries are also planning to push relevant policies to raise fuel consumption standards. According to Japanese media reports, according to the new standards set by the Japanese government, the energy efficiency standards for gasoline engines will increase from an average of 16.3 km/L in fiscal year 2009 to 20.3 km/L in fiscal year 2020, with fuel consumption of less than 5 litres per 100 km. The average fuel economy performance increased by 24.1%. The new standard will be implemented as early as the beginning of 2012. The U.S. government may also agree on new limit criteria in the coming weeks. It is understood that by 2025, the average fuel economy of American car manufacturers' products should reach 56 mpg (mpg is the US automobile fuel economy index, ie miles per gallon of fuel), and the fuel consumption per 100 km is about 4.2 L. The average fuel economy performance About doubled. In contrast, there is still a certain gap between the realization targets of the "third stage fuel consumption limit" and the United States and Japan.

We believe that energy saving and emission reduction is an industry. A country and even the entire earth can achieve basic guarantees for sustainable development. Therefore, whether it is from the perspective of global, national or industrial development, energy saving and emission reduction is a Progress will be gradually advanced. Under the trade-off between economic efficiency and social responsibility, auto companies must make decisions. We are also hereby appealing that government departments can strengthen regulatory measures to maximize the effectiveness of policies. Enterprises should actively cooperate with and face, invest more R&D funds within the scope of their capabilities, and directly link their own future development with the sustainable development of the entire industry.