Global food prices rose sharply between 2007 and mid-2008. Then the global economy suffered a financial crisis and food prices fell rapidly. However, after mid-2010, it rose sharply again and rose by 29%. The current global food price index is already Exceeded the historical high in 2008. In the context of adequate liquidity and frequent disasters, if prices of various agricultural products, including food, continue to soar, they will surely bring about a great socio-economic crisis. The food issue has always been a problem of high concern in the decision-making level. This year, it has encountered major droughts. It is necessary to ensure that the grain output will grow steadily this year. In addition to the construction of farmland water conservancy, the fertilizer industry known as “grain food†will surely usher in opportunities. . Comparing the commodity grain price index shown by IndexMundi with the data of Wind's main business income of the fertilizer manufacturing industry in China, the trend of agricultural product prices and the booming degree of the fertilizer industry over the years is very consistent, showing a positive correlation trend. The economic cycle is clearly consistent According to the data of the past 10 years, it can be seen that since 2002, international food prices have experienced two economic cycles of 2003-2005 and 2007-2008, which has also led to two upswings in chemical fertilizers. The 2003-2005 grain cycle began around July 2003, when the commodity grain price index began to rise rapidly from a low of 83.41 points, reaching a high of 109.52 in May 2004, and rose to 31 in one year. %. Correspondingly, the fertilizer boom cycle started in February 2004. In December 2003, the main business revenue of fertilizer manufacturing enterprises in China increased by only 19.01% year-on-year, and by February 2004, the year-on-year growth of main business income of fertilizer companies reached 36.93%. Afterwards, the economic boom of the fertilizer remained high and rushed again in mid-2004. Then, from 2007 to 2008, agricultural products were once again rampant. The globally loose monetary policy environment has led to rising inflation. Wheat, cotton, corn, sugar and other varieties of agricultural futures were repeatedly speculative, and the agricultural market was unprecedentedly hot. In 2008, this round of agricultural commodity bull markets first emerged in September 2006, when the food price index was 108.37 points. Followed by all the way soaring, in June 2008 has reached as high as 179.71 points, compared with the 2006 low of up to 66%. At that time, the fertilizer market, which had been relatively sluggish, started a new round of economic cycle with the bull market of agricultural products. The boom of the fertilizer industry was relatively low in 2006, and the income of the fertilizer industry remained at an increase of around 18%. Until February 2007, there was an inflection point. The increase in income rose month by month, and it increased to 41.36% in August 2008. Comparing with the data on China's fertilizer prices provided by analyst Li Haiyan, we can see that with the interpretation of the grain bull market in 2008, the prices of major chemical fertilizers such as monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, urea, and potassium chloride in China have also surged and created. A new record high. Monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate rose from the peak of 1,850 yuan/ton in February 2007 and 2,520 yuan/ton in February 2007 to the historical highs of 4,950 yuan/ton in April 2008, 3,950 yuan/ton, and 4,700 yuan/ton respectively. %, 86%; urea has risen to a historical high of 2,560 yuan/tonne in June 2008 from 1,670 yuan/ton in February 2007, and the rate of increase has reached 53%; potassium chloride is the largest increase by 2007, In November of 1,800 yuan / ton, rose to 4,750 yuan in May 2008 / ton, an increase of up to 164%. Fertilizer boom lags half a year In the business cycle of 2003-2005, the price of agricultural products began to rise around July 2003, and the start-up time of the fertilizer market was around February of 2004, a difference of about six months. The data from 2007-2008 can also prove this point. In 2008, the agricultural product bull market began in September 2006, and it was not until February 2007 that the fertilizer market started. The first startup analyst said that the increase in food prices has a lag in the transmission of agricultural fertilizer prices. Since China's crops are mostly in two seasons a year, the increase in food prices will affect farmers' enthusiasm for planting the next crop, so the demand for chemical fertilizers Will be reflected in the next season planting. Du Shuangjiang, an analyst at China Fertilizer Network, further analyzed the logic of grain and fertilizer transfer: tight food supply, rising demand for bioenergy, and inflationary pressures will lead to higher food prices. Rising food prices will increase farmers’ enthusiasm for expanding their output of food crops. In order to increase grain production, it is necessary to increase the area of ​​cultivated land or the yield per unit area. However, in the current stage of rapid urbanization, it is unlikely that a large area of ​​cultivated land will be increased, and it is still necessary to rely on chemical fertilizers to increase the output per unit area of ​​grain. Therefore, after the price of agricultural products has risen, it will be reasonable to start the fertilizer market after half a year. However, the time period at the top of the two stages is basically the same. In June 2008, the food index stood at a stage high. The period of time when chemical fertilizers hit a record high was also concentrated in April-July 2008, in which monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate reached historic highs in April and July 2008 respectively; urea, potassium chloride in 2008 6 May and May hit new highs. Agricultural product prices have broken records History may repeat again. The turning point of the current round of agricultural product prices is good in July 2010. Until January 2011, the food price index has reached 183.30 points, breaking the 2008 record. In the fertilizer market, there have been signs of significant price increases since last December. At present, the market price of monoammonium phosphate is about 2,750 yuan/ton. Diammonium phosphate was 3400 yuan/ton, nitrogen fertilizer price was maintained at 1930 yuan/ton, potassium chloride was about 2850 yuan/ton. Dong Ruo Securities analyst Yang Ruomu believes that chemical fertilizer companies have begun to enter the business cycle. At present, in the spring, spring plowing fertilizer accounts for 60% of the annual chemical fertilizer consumption. The storage volume in October 2008-March 2009, October 2009-March 2010 was 12.37 million tons and 11.93 million tons, respectively. In the second half of last year, due to the large difference in urea prices at home and abroad, the domestic urea export volume was far more than in 2009, and the stock was only 2.72 million tons in October-December 2010. Even if it is affected by the New Deal for chemical fertilizer exports this year, the export volume in January-March is Zero, at the same time, assuming that production remained at 2.88 million tons in December last year, October 2010 - March this year, only 9.99 million tons of storage, a greater decline. It can be predicted that the price of urea may continue to rise. The domestic consumption of chemical fertilizer is about 300 yuan/mu, the national subsidy is 10 yuan per mu, and the wheat planting area is 24.29 million hectares. The country will use up 24.3 billion yuan for fertilizer subsidies. In spring, fertilizers are about to begin to be used in large quantities in March. Zhang Ming, president of the agricultural and sideline business community, said that from the dealers' perspective, the fertilizer market is hot and the prices are still high and continue to rise. Data warning Global food prices rose 29% in the past year Starting in mid-2010, persistent natural disasters have led to a reduction in grain production in some countries, and large-scale agricultural commodity prices such as wheat, corn and sugar have fluctuate wildly. On February 3, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization released a report stating that the global food price index has been rising for seven consecutive months. In January this year, the global food price index reached 231 points, a record high. On February 16, the World Bank stated that according to the latest statistical report, world food prices have increased by 29% in the past year. World Bank President Robert Zoellick said that due to export restrictions and weather issues, food prices may continue to rise. Rising causes Natural disasters, biofuels and excess liquidity are pushing hands Wang Yuan, an analyst at Jinyuan Securities, believes that the frequent natural disasters and the development of biofuels have led to a tight supply of agricultural products. In the past three months, the Australian floods have reduced their wheat production and export expectations, and Russia, Ukraine and other production areas in Central Asia and the European Union have returned to drought. The relevant authorities have once again issued a ban on wheat exports. The dry weather in northern China and the Huanghuai region that lasted for more than 100 days has not yet been alleviated. The drought in Shandong province is even more frequent in 60 years. Qin Jun, an analyst with Guotai Junan, pointed out that the drought in the north of China is a positive period for the growth of winter wheat, which has a certain degree of impact on the harvest of summer grain. The disaster areas in agricultural countries in the southern hemisphere are not the most important agricultural production areas in the country. And it is not a node for the growth of crops. The impact may be lower than expected. The development of biofuels is also a potential factor driving the price increase of agricultural products, and food consumption will be even more. Everbright Futures Liu Yuelai pointed out that from 1990 to 2005, the average annual increase in world grain consumption was 21 million tons, and the average annual increase from 2005 to 2010 was 41 million tons. Excess liquidity has contributed to the price of agricultural products. A large amount of money enters the commodity market and promotes commodity futures prices. Expert doubts Ding Shengjun: Domestic food prices are stable and controllable It is still too early to tell whether the drought conditions in the winter wheat producing areas will lead to a reduction in summer grain production, promote food prices, and endanger domestic food security. As long as the “National Ten Articles†are put in place, it is still promising to seize this summer's harvest. Regardless of macroeconomic or microeconomic perspectives, domestic food prices should rise, but they must be gradual, reasonable, and controllable. The gradual and reasonable increase in food prices will not endanger food security. The reasons are: First, China has always placed agriculture and food production in a strategic position of “emphasis on top priority.†From 2004 to 2010, food has achieved “seven consecutive increasesâ€. 2. The output of animal husbandry and fishery products such as meat, eggs, milk, aquatic products, vegetables, and fruits in China increased by 27.1%, 22.2%, 282.8%, 19.7%, and 45.8%, respectively, in 2009 and 2000. Third, China's grain self-sufficiency rate has always remained above 95%. With the exception of soybeans, grain's foreign dependence is almost zero. 4. Since the beginning of reform and opening up, China has established and improved a central grain reserve system for vertical management. The country’s grain reserves are of genuine quantity and good quality. At present, the total national grain inventories are more than 200 million tons, of which wheat reserves account for a large proportion. In addition, the vast majority of farmers still have a considerable amount of surplus grain. Waterproof Washer,Approved Rubber Washe,Silicon Washer,Rubber Washer World Strong Rubber Co., Ltd. , http://www.lxrubber.com