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According to the latest development of the global pharmaceutical market in 2009 announced by the authoritative pharmaceutical consulting agency IMS on October 29, the growth rate of the global pharmaceutical market in 2009 will be similar to that in 2008, and will remain at the level of 4.5% to 5.5%. Market sales will be More than 820 billion US dollars. The uncertainties in the global economic environment and its possible impact on pharmaceutical demand have put new pressure on the pharmaceutical market. The new pattern of the pharmaceutical market in 2009 will also be reflected in many aspects, such as the growth of the pharmaceutical market in developed countries will be overshadowed by the growth of the emerging pharmaceutical market, specialty drugs will play a more important role, "bombshell" drugs lose patents one after another The influence of conservation, medical management agencies, and medical expenses payers on medical care continues to increase.
This year, the growth rate of the United States, the world's largest pharmaceutical market, is between 1% and 2%, and is expected to be 287 to 297 billion U.S. dollars, which is lower than the expected growth rate of 2% to 3% at the beginning of this year. The main reason for the slowdown in growth rate and lower than expected is that consumers’ demand for new products has decreased, and today’s harsh economic environment has also had an impact on consumer health and drug sales.
In 2009, due to the impact of continuous drug patent expiration, new product listing, and economic tightening, the US pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at a rate of only 1% to 2%, with sales of approximately 292 billion to 30.2 billion U.S. dollars. The top five markets in the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom are expected to grow at a rate of 3% to 4% next year, reaching US$162 billion to US$172 billion. In Europe, due to the more rigorous assessment of health care technologies, the need for preventive health care should have been virtually eliminated due to the aging population in the region. Health care consumption payers use less to control expenses, and government health care budgets are scattered. As the world's second largest market, Japan is expected to grow at a rate of 4% to 5%, from 84 to 88 billion U.S. dollars. The approval of new anti-cancer drugs, the promotion of disease prevention programs, and the blank period in which the Japanese government cuts prices once every two years will contribute to its market growth. The Japanese government’s efforts to promote generic drugs will only have a modest impact on the Japanese market.
Emerging markets expand rapidly
As representatives of the emerging pharmaceutical market, China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia will grow by a total of 14% to 15%, and the market value will reach 105 billion to 115 billion US dollars. Not only have pharmaceutical companies increased their attention to these high-growth markets, their growth has also benefited from increased government spending on health care, and more extensive coverage of state and private health care funds. As a result, not only is the patient more likely to obtain innovative drugs, it also promotes the market's demand for innovative drugs.
The rapid development of China's pharmaceutical market has become a universally recognized fact. In recent years, the growth rate has exceeded 20% and it has become a representative of the emerging pharmaceutical market. Contrary to the trend of most countries in the world experiencing economic recession, China’s economic development has maintained a good momentum and personal payment capacity has not been affected. The reform of the future medical system will enable more people to enjoy basic medical care on the basis of the original, and the development of the community hospital market will also be more rapid. The pharmaceutical market will have a huge capacity breakthrough and will continue to grow rapidly in the coming years. .
Specialist medicines support the market
The drug marketed by specialists in 2009 had a market growth rate of 8% to 9%, which is expected to contribute 67% of the total market growth. The growth rate of biological drugs will reach 11% to 12%, anti-tumor drugs will reach 15% to 16%, anti-AIDS drugs will reach 13% to 14%. Contrary to this, due to the loss of patent exclusivity over the blockbuster drugs and the decrease in the number of new drugs to be listed, it is expected that the growth rate of the basic healthcare drug market will be only 2% to 3%.
The number of approved new drugs has decreased
In 2009, the number of approved new products continued to be at historical lows, and it is expected that only 25 to 30 new molecular entities will be listed, of which a considerable portion belong to specialist medicines or drugs with limited market potential. Drugs expected to be listed in 2009 include 4 or 5 drugs that have the potential to become "bomb bombs" and are mainly used to treat acute coronary syndrome, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis and meningitis.
In fact, since the widespread concern of Merck's painkillers Vioxx and GlaxoSmithKline's Diabetes Avandia, the US federal regulatory agency has strengthened its supervision of drugs. In September 2008 alone, the US FDA suspended the approval of new drug applications filed by three major pharmaceutical companies, including two new Abbott drugs (pain and hypolipidemic drugs respectively) and Pfizer's anti-osteoporosis drug. An anticoagulation drug with Eli Lilly and Company. This also confirms the IMS forecast in this area.
Decline in US market growth
In 2009, the economic situation will become a complicated factor that will impact the global pharmaceutical market. In the United States, given the constant fluctuations in patient-related drug costs, the current economic recession has made the interaction between economic factors and the growth of the pharmaceutical market more intense than in previous economic recessions. According to IMS estimates, this economic downturn in 2009 will result in a 2 to 3 percentage point drop in the U.S. market. Several other countries that require patients to pay for their own drugs, such as Brazil, India, and Russia, may also be affected by economic changes.
Generic drugs usher in opportunities
In 2009, a total of US$24 billion worth of branded drugs, including anti-epileptic drugs, proton pump inhibitors, and anti-viral drugs, will lose market exclusivity in eight major markets around the world. This will mean that the sales of generic drugs will increase by US$68 billion next year. The growth rate is comparable to that of 2008, which is 5% to 7%, but it is lower than 2006 and 2007 levels. This decline was mainly affected by the United States and the United Kingdom - in the main therapeutic areas, many drug competitors launched a fierce price war and caused the marginal profit margin of generic drugs to decline. Other countries have adopted various efforts by the government to increase the market's use of generic drugs.
Payer Action Affects Market
In 2009, the growth of major European markets will also be affected by the actions of health care payers, such as Germany increasing the proportion of drug purchase refunds and tightening drugs; Italy's regional drugs continue to expand the market; the price of British brand drugs is reduced by 5%; Many French brands cut prices by 10%; Spain's reference pricing system has also expanded. At the same time, the impact brought by the intervention of health care technology assessors will also be reflected. For example, in Germany, if the new drug is determined not to have a good price, it will face the limit of medical insurance; in the UK, if the country is allowing patients to purchase Any change in treatment policy outside the scope of the National Health Service will affect the development of the country's drug market.
In addition, many incidents that occurred this year may also have a long-term impact on the global pharmaceutical market in 2009. For example, the rise of human growth hormone bioanalytes in the European market, generic drugs are widely accepted in Japan, and contraction strategies are used in EU countries. Widespread adoption, reduced European intervention in the retail market, and possible changes in health care policy after the US presidential election in November.
As an important part of the global pharmaceutical market, pharmaceutical companies can still find their own growth path through a series of strategies. If you pay more attention to emerging markets, specialty medicines, and biological medicines, solve the problems that patients have failed to meet, eliminate the problem of insufficient development of the basic medical care market, fully demonstrate the excellent value of the company’s own products, or find ways to make your own original ones. The brand returns to life. Although the growth of the market is not as rapid as it was in previous years, and the expectation is not easy to achieve, the market is still growing. In today's new environment, the key to the success of pharmaceutical companies is to adjust the company's business model to adapt to the new changes in today's market.
2009 global pharmaceutical market sales will exceed 820 billion US dollars
In a general sense, the pharmaceutical industry is not a cyclical industry, and its ability to cope with economic changes is strong. Therefore, compared with the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the impact on the pharmaceutical market is relatively small. Looking forward to 2009, the pharmaceutical market will still be able to maintain the growth rate of the previous year under the backdrop of the world's economic turmoil. --editor