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· OTA enters the intensive construction period, and the application in the car will grow sharply around 2020
In the past two years, with the development of the Internet of Vehicles, the application of OTA (Airborne Upgrade) in automobiles has gradually increased, and car companies have paid more attention to this technology. Both Ford and GM have made it clear that the air upgrade function will be popularized by 2020. In addition, many other automakers, including autonomous automakers, also claim to increase investment and layout in this regard. In the automotive sector, the development prospects of OTA have become increasingly clear.
Networking and intelligentization drive OTA into dense construction period
Anyone who knows about cars knows that before the OTA, the upgrade of the in-vehicle system relied mainly on manual methods. The car users need to drive the car to the 4S shop or some designated locations, using professional personnel and professional The device implements the brush writing on the ECU side. Obviously, this method will not only bring inconvenience to car users, but also increase the cost of car companies.
With OTA technology, connected car users can upgrade their systems by simply operating on their own car screens or mobile phones, thus saving time and labor costs. Not only that, the efficiency of vehicle upgrades has also been greatly improved, as long as the users of the Internet of Vehicles will receive such upgrade reminders, so as to achieve a more timely upgrade of the system. In addition, the OTA air upgrade facilitates car companies to upgrade the relevant systems and functions, which makes it generate more new "plays" and new business models in product development and system updates.
From this point of view, compared to the traditional way, OTA is really beneficial for the upgrade of the in-vehicle system. So why is the use of OTA in automobiles more and more known in the industry in recent years? In this regard, Zhai Yanan, president of Shanghai Airabi Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with Gasshi Automobile recently that this has a great relationship with the development of connected cars. "Networking is the foundation of OTA. If there is no Internet connection, it will not be able to talk about OTA. The main reason why Alabi chose to lay out OTA technology in the automotive field in 2015 is that before this, domestic cars have not been connected to the Internet, and since 2015, the pre-installation network has gradually developed."
Yan Yanan further pointed out that network integration is only a prerequisite for the rapid popularization of OTA upgrades, and the core demand of OTA is still the development of intelligence. "Intelligent development has increased the demand for 0TA for cars. Because there are more smart things, the number of codes may increase. The ratio of future bugs may increase, and more things need to be adjusted. In addition, After the intelligentization, the upgraded scenarios (such as adding a new feature, a better experience, etc.) and frequency will also increase, which will make the demand for OTA upgrade more urgent."
All in all, the development of OTA is closely related to the promotion of automotive network and intelligentization. In the past two years, the development of these two aspects is accelerating. According to public data, the number of vehicle networking configurations in new cars listed in 2017 accounted for 21%, which is higher than the 16% of new car configurations listed in 2016. Next, with the launch of new models, the proportion of vehicle networking assembly will continue to increase. By 2020, China's car networking users will grow from the existing 7 million to around 4.4 million in 2020, and the penetration rate will reach 18.1%.
Under this trend, car companies have accelerated the OTA layout. Yan Yanan believes that the current OTA has entered a period of intensive construction from the concept of popularization. He pointed out that in the domestic auto industry, 2015 to 2016 is the concept of OTA. During this period, Tesla's OTA upgrade allowed the industry to pay attention to and study this technology; from 2017 to 2018, it was OTA. After the intensive construction period, after deep understanding of the advantages of the technology, the car enterprises have entered the substantive construction stage of the OTA.
Construction period may be longer and applications will grow substantially around 2020
As mentioned above, car companies have entered the intensive construction period of OTA, but the industry's more consistent view is that by 2020, OTA will truly achieve larger-scale applications. The reasons are nothing more than the following two: First, for the car companies, the layout of the OTA is not easy, which involves many complicated links, so the construction period will be relatively long; Second, it has an important impact on OTA applications. The Internet of Vehicles market is still in the growth stage, and there will be no explosive growth in the short term.
Undoubtedly, from the perspective of car companies, the application of OTA not only improves efficiency, saves time and costs, but also brings convenience to car consumers, but it is worth noting that the layout of OTA also proposes new to car companies. Claim.
Yan Yanan pointed out that car companies should do a lot of preparations for the OTA, including technical preparations, such as the security defense system and the corresponding test and verification system, and so on. At the management level, Most of the engineering packages are generated by the suppliers, so it also involves the management of the supplier system and the establishment and improvement of the internal management system of the OTA system. "The construction of an OTA platform for a model generally takes more than half a year or more, which is related to the development cycle of the model. It is necessary to consider the development time of the specific model, the test and the time required for some preparation before mass production. Based on these considerations, it is estimated that by 2020, car consumers will be able to see more models that support OTA upgrades."
From the perspective of the development of the Internet of Vehicles, relevant data shows that the assembly rate of the vehicle-to-vehicle configuration in the Chinese market is currently low, only 13%, and another 2% of the models are optional. Although according to multi-party predictions, the scale of China's car networking market will reach about 33.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2020, it is undeniable that the development of car networking is not a one-step process, and the process needs to undergo a gradual growth process. It is not difficult to conclude that OTA's in-car applications will also undergo a similar process.
Of course, in this process, car companies are not "sole alone." As mentioned above, most of the actual engineering packages of the car companies are generated by the suppliers. Therefore, the relevant suppliers also play an important role in the relevant layout of the car companies. Yan Yanan believes that in the process of car O consisting of OTA, suppliers need to make efforts from the following aspects: First, suppliers need to provide a complete set of OTA solutions, which will help improve the efficiency of car enterprises. In the case of Elaba, this package includes technology management platforms, cloud and car-side interaction protocols, automotive internal upgrade systems, and upgrade capabilities on the ECUs. Second, suppliers are more than just suppliers. The provider of the technical solution must also upgrade the related services. In the process of implementing the OTA, the supplier should also coordinate with the car enterprise to construct the management process, system and corresponding management team.
All in all, with the gradual implementation of the relevant layout of car companies and the simultaneous advancement of related suppliers, OTA will gradually become an essential skill in the era of the Internet of Vehicles. According to the “Smart Vehicle Innovation Development Strategy†(Draft for Comment) issued by the National Development and Reform Commission at the beginning of this year, by 2020, the proportion of new smart cars will reach 50%. Yan Yanan said that we have reason to believe that by 2020, 50% of the cars must have OTA upgrade function.