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The monitoring data of our city in February showed that the prices of live pigs, piglets and sows all dropped, and feed prices rose and fell mixed. The price of live pigs was 11.78 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 7.47% from the previous month; piglets were 18.88 yuan per kilogram, and sows were 20.38 yuan per kilogram, down 4.41% and 1.78% from the previous month; soybean meal was 3.29 yuan per kilogram and corn was 2.20 yuan per kilogram. , A slight decrease of 1.20% and 0.45% from the previous month; 1.75 yuan per kilogram of wheat bran, a slight increase of 0.57% from the previous month. In February, the price ratio of pig food was 5.35:1, down 7.12% month-on-month, and fell below the break-even point. It moved from the "blue area" (a slight price drop) to the "yellow area" (a moderate price drop).
Affected by the volatility of the production cycle, the price of live pigs in our city dropped rapidly last year; after market regulation and farmers adjusted production rationally, the price of live pigs picked up slightly in the second half of last year, but this year they fell back into the downward space again. Especially in February, the price of live pigs dropped all the way. In February, the average price of pork back seat in our city was 26.50 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.79% from the previous month.
According to industry analysis, there are three main reasons for the decline. Before the Spring Festival, live pigs are intensively released for slaughter, and the supply of pork has increased, forming a pattern of imbalance between supply and demand and oversupply; secondly, consumer demand for pork tends to be saturated, and pork consumption has not increased much. With the improvement of living standards, people's dietary habits have also changed, and food demand has become increasingly diversified; in addition, the decline in the demand for pork in the catering industry is also a reason for the decline in live pig prices.
According to the laws of the market, under normal circumstances, from the Spring Festival to April, it is the off-season for pork consumption. It is expected that pork prices are unlikely to rise sharply in the short term. Moreover, the current stock of live pigs in our city is still relatively high, and the price of live pigs will not change much in the short term. In the long run, the price of live pigs may show a significant improvement in the second half of the year.
According to the "Hebei Province Regulation Plan for Mitigating the Periodic Fluctuations of Live Pig Market Prices", when the price of pigs and grains is in the yellow area between 5.5:1 and 5:1 for a period of time, a secondary response will be initiated, and the scale of pork reserves will be increased or Increase the size of frozen pork reserves.
Pig food price ratio refers to the ratio of the price of live pigs to the wholesale price of corn, which is a basic indicator for judging live pig production and market conditions. At present, the ratio of pig food to the break-even point of pig production in Hebei Province is about 6:1. According to the national "Regulation Plan for Mitigating the Periodic Fluctuation of Live Pig Market Price", the pig-to-grain price ratio of 6:1 and 8.5:1 is used as an early warning point. The price ratio of pig food is between 6:1-8.5:1, which belongs to the green area (the price is normal); between 8.5:1-9:1 or 6:1-5.5:1, it belongs to the blue area (the price rises slightly) Or a slight decline); between 9:1-9.5:1 or 5.5:1-5:1, belonging to the yellow area (moderate price increase or moderate decline); higher than 9.5:1 or lower than 5:1 , Belongs to the red zone (severe price rise or fall). According to the changes in the price ratio of pigs and grains, the government will initiate measures such as issuing early warning information, reserve throughput, adjustment of government subsidies, and import and export adjustments.
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Hebei live pig prices continue to fall
[China Native Pig Trading Network] Overcapacity, Hebei's live pig prices continue to fall. Since the beginning of this year, pork prices in the provincial capital have been running at a low level. Despite the Spring Festival, the retail price of pork continues to run at a low level due to the abundant supply of pigs and the subsidies for the sales of meat and vegetables. According to the monitoring of the Municipal Price Bureau, the price ratio of pigs and grains in February was 5.35:1, a decrease of 7.12% from the previous month, and has fallen below the break-even point.